When hashing through these replacement values, there is an imperfect science going on. First of all, we are using projections that are based on a computer’s guesses, and assuming many many factors. However that is half the fun before the season starts so we will use these imperfect numbers anyway.

Based off of yesterday’s post I determined that replacement value should be a give or take average of the 5 guy’s projection season totals past 16 starters, and 8 back-ups.  However for catchers I assume that almost everyone will at least have 1 back up catcher, and I assumed the 1B position was 8 spots deeper as they are more likely to be used in a utility role. So that may sway numbers as well.

The only way to really make these things perfect is to do them after the fact, and that doesn’t really help me write right now. For fun I took the top 8 projected catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen, and 3rd basemen and figured out their perceived value.

Joe Mauer    457.9    11.316
Victor Martinez    380.1    8.204
Brian McCann    369.8    7.792
Matt Wieters    349.9    6.996
Geovany Soto    341.6    6.664
Russ Martin    314.9    5.596
Jorge Posada    314.8    5.592
Yadier Molina    313.3    5.532

From that alone you can see that Joe Mauer is pretty darn good. Sorry for the poor formatting, I cannot figure out how to make it better. But anyway, Joe Mauer is 11 points each week, on average, better than the best available free agent catcher. Lets look at 1B:

Albert Pujols    604.9    13.596
Prince Fielder    542.6    11.104
Adrian Gonzalez    516.9    10.076
Mark Teixeira    514.3    9.972
Miguel Cabrera    473.4    8.336
Ryan Howard    471.1    8.244
Kevin Youkilis    460.5    7.82
Adam Dunn    455.2    7.608

and 2nd basemen:

Chase Utley    516.6    9.224
Dustin Pedroia    450.3    6.572
Ben Zobrist    438.1    6.084
Brian Roberts    428.9    5.716
Dan Uggla    416.6    5.224
Robinson Cano    414.8    5.152
Ian Kinsler    394.4    4.336
Aaron Hill    388    4.08

Finally the third basemen:

Alex Rodriguez    508    9.28
David Wright    496    8.8
Evan Longoria    473.3    7.892
Kevin Youkilis    460.5    7.38
Ryan Zimmerman    449.4    6.936
Pablo Sandoval    433.1    6.284
Mark Reynolds    414.6    5.544
Chase Headley    410.2    5.368

My first thoughts on this information was that I’m surprised that Joe Mauer wasn’t the highest. However ESPN projects Mauer to score less than last season, while not missing a month. So by that thought it makes sense. If he only matched last season’s production stretched over a full season he’d be higher than Pujols. However this is some pretty awesome stuff. The second surprise is the value of Chase Utley. The difference between having Utley on your roster and Pedroia is almost 3 points a week. In a 16 team league if you happen to get the 8th best second basemen, Aaron Hill, you’re already 5 points behind Utley that week. The quality of 2B really falls off a cliff.

If you were to tier out 2nd basemen, you could draft Utley as a tier 1/round 1 guy, then based on ESPN’s projections there’s a 2nd tier of Pedroia, Zobrist and perhaps Brian Roberts, however they’re all more likely a 3rd tier with an empty second tier, and then past that you won’t need to reach for a second basemen as they all are within coin flips of out performing each other.

The 3rd basement looked like a pretty steady decline from 1 to 8 on value. A-Rod is about 4 points better than the 8th best guy which is a big difference, but it is far from above and beyond. Let’s look at Pujols and the 1B however.  They seem to get a boost as their replacement level player might be slightly lower than the next position as more 1B (I’m predicting) will be used in the utility spot than any other position. But from 1 to 8 Pujols is 6 points a week better than an average 1st basemen.

Based on this preview, based on ESPN rankings, if I had to pick from these 4 positions and had my choice of the litter, I think I’m taking Chase Utley. I feel like Utley is going to be healthy again, on a good team that will push him to play his best all the time, for the whole season. Utley is so much better than all of his kin that he provides the best advantage going into the season for me. Joe Mauer plays catcher which means he is prone to taking days off, and getting hurt. Pujols is my 2nd choice, and could easily be my first, however the spring training back problems really scare me.

In the first round the difference between Mauer, Utley and Pujols is not terribly huge, you won’t get more than one, and they all provide the same type of leg up on the competition as the other. Tomorrow we’ll look at short stops and out fielders to see if there are any other hidden gems out there. Friday I will look at pitchers, and next week Monday I’ll release my opening day big board. I haven’t decided where to go with the feature, but I plan on making it pretty special and updating it either routinely or randomly throughout the season.