Testing Fantasy Baseball Replacement Level
When hashing through these replacement values, there is an imperfect science going on. First of all, we are using projections that are based on a computer’s guesses, and assuming many many factors. However that is half the fun before the season starts so we will use these imperfect numbers anyway.
Based off of yesterday’s post I determined that replacement value should be a give or take average of the 5 guy’s projection season totals past 16 starters, and 8 back-ups. However for catchers I assume that almost everyone will at least have 1 back up catcher, and I assumed the 1B position was 8 spots deeper as they are more likely to be used in a utility role. So that may sway numbers as well.
The only way to really make these things perfect is to do them after the fact, and that doesn’t really help me write right now. For fun I took the top 8 projected catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen, and 3rd basemen and figured out their perceived value.
Joe Mauer 457.9 11.316 Victor Martinez 380.1 8.204 Brian McCann 369.8 7.792 Matt Wieters 349.9 6.996 Geovany Soto 341.6 6.664 Russ Martin 314.9 5.596 Jorge Posada 314.8 5.592 Yadier Molina 313.3 5.532
From that alone you can see that Joe Mauer is pretty darn good. Sorry for the poor formatting, I cannot figure out how to make it better. But anyway, Joe Mauer is 11 points each week, on average, better than the best available free agent catcher. Lets look at 1B:
Albert Pujols 604.9 13.596 Prince Fielder 542.6 11.104 Adrian Gonzalez 516.9 10.076 Mark Teixeira 514.3 9.972 Miguel Cabrera 473.4 8.336 Ryan Howard 471.1 8.244 Kevin Youkilis 460.5 7.82 Adam Dunn 455.2 7.608
and 2nd basemen:
Chase Utley 516.6 9.224 Dustin Pedroia 450.3 6.572 Ben Zobrist 438.1 6.084 Brian Roberts 428.9 5.716 Dan Uggla 416.6 5.224 Robinson Cano 414.8 5.152 Ian Kinsler 394.4 4.336 Aaron Hill 388 4.08
Finally the third basemen:
Alex Rodriguez 508 9.28 David Wright 496 8.8 Evan Longoria 473.3 7.892 Kevin Youkilis 460.5 7.38 Ryan Zimmerman 449.4 6.936 Pablo Sandoval 433.1 6.284 Mark Reynolds 414.6 5.544 Chase Headley 410.2 5.368
My first thoughts on this information was that I’m surprised that Joe Mauer wasn’t the highest. However ESPN projects Mauer to score less than last season, while not missing a month. So by that thought it makes sense. If he only matched last season’s production stretched over a full season he’d be higher than Pujols. However this is some pretty awesome stuff. The second surprise is the value of Chase Utley. The difference between having Utley on your roster and Pedroia is almost 3 points a week. In a 16 team league if you happen to get the 8th best second basemen, Aaron Hill, you’re already 5 points behind Utley that week. The quality of 2B really falls off a cliff.
If you were to tier out 2nd basemen, you could draft Utley as a tier 1/round 1 guy, then based on ESPN’s projections there’s a 2nd tier of Pedroia, Zobrist and perhaps Brian Roberts, however they’re all more likely a 3rd tier with an empty second tier, and then past that you won’t need to reach for a second basemen as they all are within coin flips of out performing each other.
The 3rd basement looked like a pretty steady decline from 1 to 8 on value. A-Rod is about 4 points better than the 8th best guy which is a big difference, but it is far from above and beyond. Let’s look at Pujols and the 1B however. They seem to get a boost as their replacement level player might be slightly lower than the next position as more 1B (I’m predicting) will be used in the utility spot than any other position. But from 1 to 8 Pujols is 6 points a week better than an average 1st basemen.
Based on this preview, based on ESPN rankings, if I had to pick from these 4 positions and had my choice of the litter, I think I’m taking Chase Utley. I feel like Utley is going to be healthy again, on a good team that will push him to play his best all the time, for the whole season. Utley is so much better than all of his kin that he provides the best advantage going into the season for me. Joe Mauer plays catcher which means he is prone to taking days off, and getting hurt. Pujols is my 2nd choice, and could easily be my first, however the spring training back problems really scare me.
In the first round the difference between Mauer, Utley and Pujols is not terribly huge, you won’t get more than one, and they all provide the same type of leg up on the competition as the other. Tomorrow we’ll look at short stops and out fielders to see if there are any other hidden gems out there. Friday I will look at pitchers, and next week Monday I’ll release my opening day big board. I haven’t decided where to go with the feature, but I plan on making it pretty special and updating it either routinely or randomly throughout the season.
