Imagine being halfway into the second round of your draft, whether or not you’re in a keeper league or not, how exciting is it to see Matt Holliday fall to the 16th pick? Well I was less than excited. I’m the type of fantasy player who doesn’t want to have to draft a player because they fall to them. Most fantasy players would be excited to get a first round player in the 2nd round of the draft (remember the draft was in a keeper league, but in fresh leagues Holliday is probably a late 1st/early 2nd player anyway).

Don’t get me wrong I like the fact that I’m getting a hitter who can reach a .400 wOBA, and is projected by 5 different projections to be above .390 for 150 games. So let us focus on Matt Holliday the player, not the fact that I “had” to draft him.

In 2004 Matt Holliday broke into the show with the Rockies and promptly played 121 games, hit 19 homers, and held his own with a .358 wOBA. As a rookie this is really good, but the Coors Field effect cast doubts on his actual ability.  In 2005, ‘06, and ‘07 he continued to get better as his wOBA increased every season as well as his playing time, with 2007 being the career year, 36 homers, and an amazing .428 wOBA.

2008 saw Matt Holliday going backwards some with 12 less balls leaving the stands as home runs, costing his wOBA to drop to .418, which was just the 6th best hitter in the league. Because of Holliday’s looming payday the Rockies decided to ship him off to the highest bidder who turned out to be Oakland, Oakland then turned him over to St. Louis mid-season.

Last season Matt Holliday played a full season and mashed the ball again. His counting stats matched 2008, however he played 20 more games, dropping his wOBA to .390. This drop could be from park effects, age, injury, or just general decline. However, the forecasters named Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, Zips, and the Fans of Fangraphs, all have Holliday matching last years effectiveness with a full season in St. Louis. His projected wOBA ranges from .390 to .399, and playing time they see him getting at least 597 or more plate appearances.

As a 30 year old Holliday still has some life to live in the major leagues. His game is based on power, speed, eye, and ability, and that’s why he got paid this last off season. As a fantasy owner, getting first round talent in the 2nd round, well I just made myself feel better. In your draft you may have to decide do you want Pedroia, Zimmerman, Sizemore, or Holliday… I had the choice made for me already, but it might not be a bad idea to just take Holliday as he has the ability to regress and be better than the others, while he also has a chance to get lucky (a few extra seeing-eye singles, a few cheap homers) and put up another .400+ wOBA year.